Terrorism

Forecasting Terrorism

One of the primary patters of terrorist operations than can indicate an attack and should concern intelligence services is weapons movement. Since large-scale attacks often necessitate a mass of weapons, this is a good indicator and intelligence services should pay close attention to this type of movement. Of course, as the September 11, 2001 attacks indicate, large-scale weapons movement is not always necessary in modern terrorist attacks. The recent arrests in Germany indicate, however, that large-scale massing of ingredients to create weapons is also a high indicator of upcoming terrorist activity.

Another key indicator is terrorist propaganda. While propaganda is not always an indicator of upcoming terrorist activity, it can be a good indicator that activity is going to increase in the near future, and often, propaganda includes threats against specific nations, which can be excellent indicators that an attack is going to occur. Combine propaganda with another indicator, increased terrorist movement and activity in certain areas, and the likelihood of a terrorist attack become more probable. This includes increased training programs, such as the recent training activity by al Qaeda in Afghanistan that was covered on the media and al Qaeda said was directed toward America and American allies.

Another indicator could be the time between attacks. Since it is a given that terrorist organizations will continue to attack their "enemies" whenever it is possible, and their aim is to do the most possible damage, it should be a conclusion that terrorist attacks will continue, and that as time passes between attacks, the probability grows that another attack will take place. If terrorists wait too long between attacks, their message becomes diluted, and their ability to continue attacks comes into question. Thus, the time frame between attacks, as it grows, is a good indicator that another attack is growing more likely.

References

Khalsa, S.K. (2005). Forecasting terrorism: Indicators and proven analytic techniques. Retrieved from the Intelligence Analysis Web site: https://analysis.mitre.org/proceedings/Final_Papers_Files/106_Camera_Ready_Paper.pdf9 Oct. 2007.